Saturday, November 18, 2006

RUMORS RAMPANT: WHAT WE KNOW

(or at least think we know...)

Contrary to all the emails, message board postings and other rumors, we don't believe any decision on Mike Shula's future has been made. Indications from various sources are that University officials are considering the future direction of the program. More specifically, some people close to the University are lobbying President Witt for a change.

Cecil Hurt's column up on Tidesports.com

CECIL HURT: Does Alabama have the best coach it could have?

Wow. Amazing column that points out what we've all known for a few days that:

  1. One has to hope a decision is coming soon; from all indications Witt is the person at the center of the discussion. I could be wrong, but Witt decided to fire Price and from what I hear, Witt will make the call on Shula. "It’s been debated over the past few weeks and, despite what some have said, there was no firm answer reached before the Auburn game." But now the game is done and the heat is much higher.
  2. Mike Shula is a nice guy, but isn't getting the job done. "...the gap between UA and the league’s top programs seems to be widening, not narrowing."

FINEBAUM: 'Serious conversations going on right now'

Paul Finebaum said on Fox6 Sports tonight that "serious conversations" between Mal Moore, President Robert Witt and others were going on behind the scenes.

"I think he is in that much trouble based on his body of work," Finebaum said.

SOURCE: Heavy lobbying underway

It is believed, according to someone close to the University, that serious background discussions are underway by officials outside the athletic department. The lobbying effort centers on convincing the University President, Robert Witt, that Mike Shula should be let go. How extensive the lobbying effort might be is not clear; however, Witt's loyalty to Shula may not be as strong as once thought. It is believed that Jim Wilson III's efforts to lobby Mal Moore earlier in the week were a direct result of the efforts already underway to push Shula out as head football coach.

SPREAD THE WORD: SHULA BALL IS OVER AT ALABAMA

THIS IS A MAKE OR BREAK WEEKEND FOR ALABAMA. Let everyone know about this site. Let's put the pressure on the University by drawing attention to this situation. AL.COM and other message boards need to be informed about this site. Let your friends know by email.

You can also email specific stories from this site to your friends by clicking on the mail icon below each post.

EDITORIAL: A winnable game lost not by talent, but by coaching

Once again another Iron Bowl loss. This is the worst stretch for Alabama football since before Bryant was coach at the University.

In searching for causes, you can look no farther than the coaching staff. Some problems in the game were the problems which have plagued Alabama all season:
  1. Poor line play. The line gave up 11-sacks last season. This season not as many, but the collapse of the right side of the line caused two fumbles. The critical failures led an incompetent Auburn offense to 14-points.
  2. Game management: The 2-point conversion before halftime made sense. Provided you thought you would need a field goal to tie the game. Of course, that field goal type mentality is what hurts this team's philosophy. There is no killer instinct.
    The failure to get a field goal in the fourth quarter and burning timeouts put Alabama into a much tougher position than it should've been in. Not everything is Shula's fault, but his assistants have done nothing to help him this season. Ungerer, Connelley, Woods, et al must go. If Shula is allowed to stay at the University.
    Shula's gambles this season were often ill-conceived. John Madden said it best, "Sometimes the hardest thing to do is the smart thing." Shula's mistakes in game management hurt the team's chances all season and especially in the big rivalry games of Tennessee, LSU and Auburn.
  3. Special teams:Could the special teams play have been worse this season? Penalties on kickoffs, poor punt returns, etc. Starting in a hole all the time is a good recipe for failure.

Conclusion: The University must fire Mike Shula and replace him with a competent coach. While Shula is a likeable, he isn't getting the job done. The team isn't tough. It isn't able to execute and it isn't disciplined. The final verdict is that Shula is not ready for primetime in the SEC.

Friday, November 17, 2006

COACH SHULA RUMOR: What was N1UA doing in Augusta this week?

From Nov. 13-16, N1UA registered to the Crimson Tide Foundation, was in Augusta, Ga.

Speculation around the trip built Friday evening as word of Mike Shula's standing as Alabama head football coach was coming under fire from members of the University's board of trustees.

We here have no word on what the trip to August involved (was it a normal golf outing, business trip, or coach hunting?). But since it is a major rumor of the moment and the trip was verifiable via flight data, it is being hotly discussed.

UPDATE: Paul Bryant Jr.'s plane was also recently in Augusta. This information lends credence to the suggestion the plane was having routine maintenance.

RECAP: Shula situation more uncertain than previously thought

New details regarding the Shula situation were discussed today, which creates a better picture of the crisis. Clearly, at this moment, Mike Shula is not as safe as the Alabama football coach as previously thought. Odds are that Shula would return; however, there is information which contradicts the conventional wisdom:

  1. Jim Wilson III has been working the phones all week calling Mal Moore lobbying that Mike Shula should keep his job.
  2. At least one major trustee has been lobbying University officials to fire Shula. Indications are this trustee could be Bryant.
  3. Most well-placed media sources have refused to speculate on Shula's status. Cecil Hurt of the Tuscaloosa News said today that Shula's future was still uncertain. Hurt said he felt that no decision on Shula's future had been taken. That leads to the belief amongst most people that the Iron Bowl game would play a critical role in determining Shula's future.
  4. The Birmingham News, in Kevin Scarbinsky's column, stated in Friday's edition that Shula would return next season. The column went further to say that Moore would not even pressure Shula to make staff changes.

ANALYSIS: Why would Wilson need to lobby Moore if the situation was not more critical than Shula supporters thought? The fact Wilson is spending time working the phones shows how critical the situation has become inside the politburo. This takes on a different shape when we understand that one influential trustee has already decided that Shula must go.

The media situation is a complex, but important element of the story. Cecil Hurt has been the one media voice closest to the situation in the program for the last decade. He has the pulse of the program. He's not willing to make a definitive statement. That means he is getting conflicting information. His only definitive statement is that no definitive decision had been made regarding Shula's tenure. That's big.

The Birmingham News has taken on the role of spewing the pro-Shula line for at least the last football season. Either the News has chosen some trustee sources (and other sources within the athletic department) who are grinding axes and pushing an agenda in print, or the Birmingham News is just wrong on this story through misunderstanding the information given by the sources. In any case, the information from the News has to be considered highly suspect (probably more suspect than something coming from Bama Online or BamaMag.)

No options ruled out on Shula

Cecil Hurt said on today's Finebaum radio show that from what he has heard, "No options removed from the realm of possibilities," for the Alabama football program.

Nothing definitive has happened, Hurt said. He said many options for the future of the program are on the table. He said the outcome of the football game could impact the calculus in whether Shula is retained or let go.

Behind the scenes lobbying for and against Shula at Alabama

Finebaum questions the veracity of the Kevin Scarbinsky column in today's Birmingham News. Finebaum asked a simple question, if Shula's job is so safe, why has Jim Wilson III been on the phone consistently lobbying Mal Moore to save Mike Shula's job? In addition, Finebaum said Ray Perkins has also been lobbying to save Shula's job at the University.

What is up with the Birmingham News? First, we get the column last week, which was riddled with questions over some assertions about Shula's job. But even that column suggested staff changes would be required. The News seems lost in reporting the story of Mike Shula.

Coaching rumors: If Shula is out, Chan Gailey might be in

Shula speculation: Keeps job, NO STAFF CHANGES

While the accepted wisdom was that Mal Moore would force Shula to make changes on his staff if the Alabama head football coach was retained, this column from the Birmingham News says otherwise, according to a source.

"One Alabama man who has discussed the subject with AD Mal Moore said, win or lose, Shula will not be fired and will not be forced to make changes on his coaching staff. That's not a popular opinion, at least when it comes to staff changes, and it'll be less popular if Tuberville runs around Bryant-Denny Stadium waving an Iron fist. But that's what should happen."

That is depressing news. It doesn't mean Shula won't make changes, but he won't be required to make changes. Shula simply must get rid of at least 3 assistant coaches (special teams, offensive line and running backs). If Shula won't pull the trigger on those assistants then while Shula may survive this year, and may survive next season, he will be fired at some point. Alabama fans should always remember Dubose and realize that sooner is better than later.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Alabama's next offensive coordinator?

Alabama's O-Line seeks redemption

"It don't take much to get up for this one," sophomore center Antoine Caldwell said. "The whole offensive front went out there and got embarrassed last year. We've got to use it as motivation," according to this story in the Mobile Press-Register.

It would've been nice had the offensive line been as motivated every week this season.

The theme of sacks and how to improve pass protection is something getting lots of attention this Wednesday. Cecil Hurt's column in the Tuscaloosa News also contains a big emphasis on that theme: “If I just say that we are going to prepare to see that it doesn’t happen again, then that sounds like we didn’t prepare last year, and that’s not what I’m saying," Rader said. “But it is important. If the quarterback doesn’t get hit, then he can throw the ball better. If he throws the ball better, we can move better. And if we move the ball better, we can score more points, which is what we are trying to do. It’s a triple-tier effect. So I guess I’m saying 'Yes, we’ve got to make sure that doesn’t happen again.’"

Let's hope there is real improvement in every facet of the offensive line play this year.

Alabama Hotties Up for Award

The two houndstooth-hat wearing blonde twins at Alabama games are finalists in the Aaron's Super Fan contest at the southernsportsawards.com. You can vote for them here.

The twins, Maegan and Ashley Bailey, were featured in a Birmingham News article earlier this year. The twins are from Oneonta and are a statuesque 5-foot, 10-inches tall.

Monday, November 13, 2006

Bowling Projections: Alabama to Liberty

Alabama could land in the Liberty Bowl, according to CBS.SPORTSLINE.COM

Sports Illustrated online expert Stewart Mandell has Alabama slated for the Independence Bowl.

Alabama could improve its bowl position with a win over Auburn.

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Shula Apologists win victory, further censorship on message boards

In what was the best run Alabama discussion board around, the apologists have scored a major victory by finding a way to get the term apologist and realist censored on tidesports.com message boards.

That is a black mark for any organization to remove perfectly legitimate words from the lexicon; however, how much worse when it is done by a newspaper company. Newspapers (more than other organizations) should have a committment to free and open discussion, especially discussion via the written word.

That lesson reminds me of a classic episode of the Simpsons: Saddlesore Galactica. In this espisode Lisa bitches and complains about her band losing a competition because another group "cheated." Eventually, Lisa takes her complaint all the way to the top, Bill Clinton, president of the United States. The episode resolves with Clinton nullifying the band competition and declaring Lisa's band the winner:
Bill Clinton: No, thank you, Lisa. For teaching kids everywhere a valuable lesson: If things don't go your way, just keep complaining until your dreams come true.
Marge: That's a pretty lousy lesson.
Bill Clinton: Hey, I'm a pretty lousy president.

Unfortunately, after what appeared to be personal dispute between a couple of posters, the Apologists win a victory by getting a perfectly viable term eliminated from posting. The lesson here is to go in, pick fights with people and eventually you can limit the terminology of the opposition.

Being able to classify your opponent is a critical element of political discourse. Often people resent being classified as a liberal or Democrat because of the particular stigma each carries; however, there can be no disputing how important the ability to classify is to debate. By censoring the word-choice of posters the moderators have taken a major step away from showing a committment to the first amendment. The moderators actions say, "The first amendment is fine, until it causes us a headache."

Yes, I'm clear that forums are a privilege and not a right. I'm further clear that newspapers own the means of production (thus they buy the ink and paper and therefore determine what is on the page; it is the same with the Internet. You buy the server and pay for its operation, you get to say what happens in the forums.) However, the actions you take speak loudly. Unfortunately, the lesson is that you can gain censorship by bitching and creating fights on message boards.

Public discourse is forever injured when restricted. Better to punish offenders than to injure all posters.

COMPARE: Shula vs. Franchione

When we talk about Shula, we should keep Franchione's record at Texas A&M in mind:

TAMU football highlights under Dennis Franchione (taken from www.firedennisfranchione.com:
Overall Record 24 W 22 L
One bowl appearance Cotton Bowl 2005 Loss to Tennessee
Largest football loss is school history 2003 Oklahoma 77 TAMU 0
Never finished as a ranked team.
0-3 against Texas
1-3 against Texas Tech
0-4 against Oklahoma
The first 4 wins in 2006 were against very weak opponents. This should allow TAMU to have a low rated bowl game in 2006.
TAMU under Franchione typically looses against good teams. Under Franchione TAMU is 4-15 vs. ranked opponents.
You can see much more about Franchione's problems at A&M by visiting: Firedennisfranchione.com

Compare Franchione's record at A&M with his tenure at Alabama (while short, he did post decent records against big time opponents):
Franchione: 17-8
Tenn 1-1
LSU 1-1
Auburn 1-1
Ark 2-0
record against major SEC rivals: 5-3 (as an aside compare Shula's record agains major SEC rivals 2-13)

Franchione's tenure at Alabama was short; however, he posted good numbers. His problems at Texas A&M provide an interesting epilogue to one of the worst experiences in Alabama football history.

Who thinks Shula could do a better job at A&M than Franchione? I'm betting not even the A&M folks would make a trade right now.

Institutional Control? Alabama's leadership run amok

The Univeristy of Alabama made the Sunday morning edition of the New York Times.

And it isn't in a good way. The story, Sports Artist Sued for Mixing Crimson and Tide, highlights everything wrong with the University's present leadership.

Daniel Moore has done more to help the University, he has done more to promote the football program than anyone inside the athletic department (or anyone inside the legal department.) Instead of recognizing the benefit to the University of having a world-renowned artist promoting the team, greedy, small-minded men decided the best thing to do would be to profiteer.

At the heart of this issue is the constitutional protections for free expression. Courts will decide this, but everyone must worry when a judge gets involved. You never know what important constitutional protections would be re-written to benefit big business.

POLL: Mike Shula's job satisfaction at 42 percent

According to this story in the Mobile Press-Register, a scientific poll conducted on the job satisfaction of Mike Shula was only 42 percent. An interesting stat is that 3 percent of Alabama fans want Shula fired now, according to the survey.

The lesson from the poll is made clear by (of all people!?!?) Travis Reier of Bama Online. Reier said: "I think those numbers are reflective of conducting a poll before the Auburn game," Reier said. "Do it again on Sunday, Nov. 19 (the day after the annual Iron Bowl) and see what you get. It will depend on the outcome of that game. Even with all this outrage from many fans, there is still a lot of optimism about that game."

That is a very good point from Reier. Most fans are still waiting and seeing about how things unfold and won't make their minds up before the end of the season. Of course, there could be many other interesting elements to the poll not presented in the story. How many Auburn fans were included? Large numbers would distort the numbers. Also, who commissioned the poll and why?

The poll makes for an interesting bit of information, but doesn't change the reality for Shula. He has to win football games.

LSU 28 Alabama 14

Another week, another loss.

This loss wasn't as bad as MSU, because LSU is a quality team and the coaching staff had what appears to be a solid game plan.

Once again, Alabama continued to have second-half problems. The Crimson Tide couldn't find a way to score after intermission. And the team only posted 14 points.

I think Shula's loudest critics will say the execution was a bit better on offense. But when LSU brought pressure in the second-half, the offense didn't seem to have an answer.

A roundup of game stories:
Tide loosens up but looses anyway
The song remains the same
Melick's column: This loss may have hurt worst of all raises an interesting point. This team took the game seriously, gave more than in any game over the last few weeks and lost. He asks, "Does this team have anything left to give?" Remember last year's Iron Bowl debacle? Alabama's heads were still in the LSU game. This year could be a repeat unless the coaching staff gets its act together.